Jesse Ausubel

Jesse Ausubel studies our 'pulses' of energy consumption and what that means. A summary of his talk is that we are doing more with less and that with focusing on innovation and dematerialization we can get ourselves out of the current environmental problem.

Last night at the Aquarium of the Pacific’s Aquatic Academy class, speaker Jesse Ausubel presented Creativity and Innovation Got Us Into This Pickle and They are Our Only Way Out; What Will It Take? It May Surprise You. Mr. Ausubel is the Director of the Program for the Human Environment and Senior Research Associate at The Rockefeller University. He presented one of the most intriguing and curious environmental lectures that I have ever seen. Ausubel’s talk flies directly in the face of the “Doom and Gloom” environmentalism and is a kindred spirit to Steven Pinker’s Better Angels of Our Nature thesis (that society is getting less violent as we progress), David Deustch’s Beginning of Infinity thought (that humans as creators of our own destiny have developed the foundation for infinite growth), and Robert Wright’s NonZero philosophy (that society is progressing toward better on every important metric).

Mr. Ausubel shows a way out of the environmental mess by showing that in many ways we are on our way out. Using Population Growth, Agriculture, and Consumption as his main points, he shows that we while we have more people than ever, that agriculture “is the single biggest rapist of our land”, and that we as a globe consume too much, the trends are not what we are led to believe. Population explosion is unprecedented but the population growth rate in the United States peaked in the 1970’s and has been falling since. In the US, more food is produced on less land and has since the 70’s. And consumption in relation to GDP in the first world has fallen for 89 of 100 of the most popular consumer items (from asbestos to ladders). Globally, he says, the trends are off a bit but the same idea holds for almost every economic sector and nation (for example:  China has the lowest growth rate compared to any other country [it takes 6 Chinese adults to create 2 children], more calories are produced on less land everywhere, and while countries get wealthier they only consume more in the beginning and then it levels off quickly – this is called the Kuznet’s Curve).

What I took from the talk and what I love is the following:

• Currently, we have more forest volume, more previous agricultural land being spared, lower consumption rates
  
• With all this, caloric food production is currently being met (distribution and alleviation of chronic hunger is a separate issue), drastically more people with much more access to basic needs, more people have access to phenomenal possibilities and consumer goods than at any other time in history, and more wild lands now than since the beginning of the industrial revolution
  

This is because:

•  We have become exponentially more efficient through drastically better information, dematerialization and greater capacities for communication
  
• There is higher affluence globally providing more people with more choice
  
• A lower growth rate providing even more choice and for even more people
  

His big caveat is the ocean. All of the above points only to the terrestrial. The ocean is still 100 years behind the curve and ocean exploitation is still within the atavistic hunter gatherer paradigm.  The ocean is demonstrably worse off

Where I see his argument could use further analysis, study and discussion is the following:

• Endangered species and biodiversity are not fully accounted for
  
• While trends are better than we thought, the current situation is also worse than we thought in many instances and the trajectory he speaks of is not fast enough to not just meet sustainable limits but to actually fix it
  
• Ausubel started his talk with the disclaimer that he thinks the current idea of relying upon the government (or any extrinsic entity) to save us and our problems needs to be addressed and counteracted, the spirit of his argument is a market-driven, silicon-valley mindset that consumer habits and increased technology will save us. These need to be tools, just like government regulation is a tool or like current cultural values are a tool, in the tool belt to fix the problems. This is actually the biggest problem I have with his talk and I can’t fully explain why. It just gives me an “icky”, pit-in-the-stomach feeling.
  

Overall, I believe his perspective is needed and I want desperately to believe it is the truth. I want to believe that trends like he is describing will help us transcend the Type 1 Civilization on the Kardashev Scale that Sagan, Michio Kaku, Diamandis and Ray Kurzweil talk about as being the critical point of transcendence for our species. I look forward to following Ausubel’s work to see how his unique perspective will interpret more global problems and help open the door for more creative solutions. 

For more: check out Mr. Ausubel's interview here: The Intelligent Optimist